UK share dividends soar 46% to £94bn

UK company share dividends soared 46.1% in 2021 to £94.1 billion on a headline basis, according to the latest Dividend Monitor report from Link Group.

This took the total paid back up to mid-2017 levels.

One-off special dividends boosted the headline total by a record £16.9 billion, three times their normal level.

Underlying dividends, which exclude special payouts, rose 21.9% to £77.2 billion in 2021, close to 2015 levels.

The second and third quarters saw the strongest rebound, reflecting the challenging conditions in the corresponding quarters of 2020.

“It was a very unbalanced year with excessive dependence on mining companies, whose booming profits meant payouts were three times larger than the long-term average,” said the report.

“Together they accounted for almost a quarter of the UK total last year, and were by far the biggest contributor to the year’s increase in dividends overall.

“The second most significant driver of growth was the restoration of banking distributions, but many sectors were able to refuel their payouts more quickly than seemed likely in January 2021 when the pandemic was in a peak.

“The large and diverse industrials sector stood out with 59.8% growth, though its payouts remain a quarter below pre-Covid-19 levels.

“Airlines, leisure and travel, decimated by the pandemic, cut distributions by four fifths for the second year running, while oil dividends were lower because reductions in 2020 took place later in the year.

“Telecoms was the other main casualty thanks to the cancellation of BT’s distributions. Typically defensive sectors (such as food, basic consumer goods and pharma) held payouts flat.

“2021 saw dividends rebound twice as strongly among mid-caps (+40.1%) than the top 100 on an underlying basis (+20.0%).

“Growth among smaller companies was faster still.

“Mid-caps benefited from cancelled dividends being restored and the cyclical upswing to which they tend to be more sensitive.

“By the end of the year, underlying dividends from the top 100 had returned to 2016 levels, but despite their big rebound, mid-cap dividends ended the year no higher than mid-2014 (and at the same level as 2007 and 2008).”

For 2022, Link Group expects underlying growth of 5.0 % bringing total dividends to £81 billion.

“This is equivalent to 8.9% if you adjust for BHP’s and Morrison’s delisting,” said the report.

“Special dividends are very likely to be much lower, meaning headline dividends will fall 7.0% to £87.5bn.

“Over the next twelve months we expect UK equities to yield 3.5%.”

Ian Stokes, Managing Director, Corporate Markets UK and Europe, Link Group, said: “The recovery in UK dividends is not complete, but the easiest part of the catch up is now behind us.

“2022 faces a number of headwinds in the form of Omicron disruption, inflation, and tax hikes and that adds uncertainty to our forecast.

“As the pandemic continues, it would be easy to take a knife to our expectations for dividends for the coming year. We are, however, cautiously optimistic that most sectors can deliver growth.

“Banks and oil companies should be the main engines of progress in 2022.

“Mining companies can neither sustain this pace of increases nor likely repeat special dividends of this size.

“We are hopeful that their regular dividends are supported, however, given relatively firm commodity prices.

“The proposed imminent departure of BHP from London will help restore some balance to the UK index.

“The dominance of big mining groups has overshadowed the income generating capacity of the broader market and left UK payouts too heavily dependent on a single, highly cyclical sector.”

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Mark McSherry
Dalriada Media LLC sites are edited by veteran news journalist Mark McSherry, a former staff editor and reporter with Reuters, Bloomberg and major newspapers including the South China Morning Post, London's Sunday Times and The Scotsman. McSherry's journalism has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Independent, The New York Times, London's Evening Standard and Forbes. McSherry is also a professor of journalism and communication arts in universities and colleges in New York City. Scottish-born McSherry has an MBA from the University of Edinburgh and a Certificate in Global Affairs from New York University.