Shares of Newcastle-based Greggs rose as much as 7% after it published a third-quarter trading update showing total sales up 6.1% for the 13 weeks to September 27, 2025, and 6.7% year-to-date.
“Greggs delivered 6.1% sales growth over the third quarter of 2025, with LFL sales in company-managed shops rising by 1.5% when compared with the same period in 2024,” said the Newcastle firm.
“While unusually high temperatures persisted throughout July, which held back performance during the month, trading improved in August and September in more stable conditions. Year-to-date total sales are up 6.7%, with LFL sales up 2.2%.
“Our autumn menu focuses on quality and value, supported by the ‘Big Deal’, our new meal deal, which offers customers any sandwich or salad, a drink, and a side from just £5. The menu continues to evolve and, as demand for high-protein options continues to grow, we have introduced new Egg Pots and Protein Shakes as convenient options for customers on the go.
“We have upgraded our sandwich options and new sourdough toasties enhance Greggs appeal across the day.
“Encouraged by the early success of our Pulled Pork Sandwich trial, this product has now been extended to 350 shops and innovation continues in our iconic savouries, with the flavourful Chicken Fajita Bake and the return of the Vegan Lattice (Steak-Free), catering to flexitarian trends.
“Seasonal highlights for autumn include the great value Pumpkin Spice Latte, now also available over ice, and sweet additions like the Pumpkin Spice Doughnut and Toffee Fudge Muffin.
“As previously announced, in September we extended the availability of our frozen ‘Bake at Home’ range through a new relationship with Tesco, initially launching a selection of five products. Our Bake at Home range is now available in 930 Iceland and 820 Tesco stores across the UK and online.”
In its outlook, the firm said: “Greggs continues to make progress despite challenging market conditions, evolving its offer further and making the brand more convenient for a wider range of customers through disciplined estate expansion.
“Our two new distribution centres in Derby and Kettering are on track to open in 2026 and 2027 respectively and will support the next phase of this growth.
“Operational costs have been well managed and the outlook for cost inflation in 2025 is marginally improved. The Board’s expectation for the full year outcome is unchanged and we remain clear on the strategic opportunities that lie ahead.”
REACTION:
Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, interactive investor: “Greggs reported third quarter total sales up 6.1% and like-for-like sales rose by 1.5%. It carried out 57 net new shop openings and expanded its Bake at Home range.
“Greggs enjoyed an improvement in trading in August and September after ‘unusually high temperatures’ negatively impacted July. Its cost inflation outlook improved ‘marginally’ too.
“The focus for Greggs in autumn is on the roll out of its ‘Big Deal’, a rival to Tesco’s meal deal. It offers customers a main, a drink and a side for just £5 and is likely to be very popular with its on-the-go working customers. It has also introduced other convenience options such as Egg Pots and Protein Shakes. Greggs is targeting at home customers too by expanding its ‘Bake at Home’ frozen to more supermarket stores like Iceland and Tesco.
“Greggs has demonstrated its ability to navigate a challenging environment by appealing to on-the-go working customers looking for a cheap and cheerful varied menu of hot and cold options. It has been expanding its store estate, keeping a lid on costs, and is constantly innovating with new ideas to either get customers through the doors or bring Greggs to people’s homes.
“Today’s stock market rally comes as a welcome break for Greggs’ investors. The stock is up around 5% this morning, but shares are still down around 40% year-to-date, reflecting the recent slowdown in sales growth hit by the sluggish macroeconomic backdrop, high cost inflation, and unpredictable UK weather.”
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Even sausage rolls are sweating as Greggs feels the heat. Hot weather and a softer consumer backdrop meant third-quarter growth slowed, raising question marks around expectations for the full year. Management isn’t waving the white flag just yet, with the full-year outlook unchanged. But this quarter was about weathering the bumps rather than breaking records – a far cry from the Greggs of 2024.
“Longer term, the ingredients for growth are still in the mix. Expanding into supermarkets and online through Bake at Home, plus major supply chain upgrades, should set the stage for the next leg from 2026. Cost pressures are easing slightly, which helps, but today’s update is a reminder that even a category leader isn’t immune to short-term headwinds.
“For investors, the steady ship has been rocked this year, and the outlook has shifted to a slow rise rather than a rapid bake – but there is still an attractive recipe lurking beneath the surface.”