Shares of Cheshire-based NWF Group plc, which delivers fuel, food and agricultural feeds across the UK, fell almost 20% after it warned its results for the financial year ending May 31, 2026, are now expected to be “significantly below” current market expectations.

“Company compiled full year analyst consensus as at 20 November 2025 is for Headline operating profit of £17.9m and Headline profit before tax of £13.2m,” said the firm.

NWF said lower market demand for both domestic and commercial fuel has “resulted in an increasingly competitive market with pricing pressure impacting margins and profitability of the business.”

In a trading update for the half-year ending November 30, 2025, NWF said: “Trading across the group’s three businesses since its trading statement issued at the time of its AGM in September has been mixed, with solid performances in Food and Feeds more than off-set by a disappointing trading period for Fuels …

“In the AGM Statement, it was noted that demand for domestic heating oil and commercial fuels was below the prior year, and data published by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) on 30 October 2025 has reported that heating oil volumes in the three-month period to August 2025 were 25 per cent lower than the prior year. 

“These lower volumes have continued to be experienced, largely attributable to temperatures through the Autumn being warmer than historical averages. With the seasonally busier winter months still to come, the group expects that heating oil demand will return to normal levels, but this will not compensate for the unusually lower volumes in the first half of the year.

“Demand for commercial diesel and gas oil has also been lower in the period following the AGM Statement. Gas oil, which is a higher margin product for the group, has been specifically impacted, with DESNZ reporting on 30 October 2025 that gas oil volumes in the three-month period to August 2025 were nearly 30 per cent lower than the prior year.

“The suppressed market demand for both domestic and commercial fuel has resulted in an increasingly competitive market with pricing pressure impacting margins and profitability of the business.

“As announced in the group’s AGM trading statement in September, the national roll out of the Fuels regional operating model was concluded in July.

“Against the backdrop of the difficult market conditions this operational change has created some short term challenges as the business embeds the new operating model. The investment that has been made will result in commercial and operational improvements as the year progresses … 

“The Food business has secured new contracted business during the first half of the year, and the benefits from the restructuring of the cost base undertaken in June 2025 are being realised. Taken together, this has resulted in a financial performance for the business ahead of the comparative period.

“Management continues to focus on delivering further efficiency opportunities and delivering on its growth strategy to develop a national network of scale …

“The positive momentum in Feeds referred to in the AGM Statement has continued, with volumes in line with the prior year, and healthy margins maintained as the business moves into the traditionally busier half of the year. The milk price remained stable throughout the Period, which encouraged customers to feed livestock to maximise yield.”

In its outlook, NWF said: “The Group expects the performance of Fuels to improve in the second half as demand for domestic heating oil increases through the colder months.  Despite the anticipated recovery, the Board does not believe this will offset the shortfall experienced in the first half, and accordingly, the Group results for the financial year ending 31 May 2026 are now expected to be significantly below current market expectations.

“The medium-term outlook for domestic heating oil remains positive, and on 29 October 2025, DESNZ confirmed that the UK Government would no longer proceed with previous Government proposals to implement regulations restricting fossil fuel heating installations in off-gas grid properties. The Board will continue to monitor developments regarding the Government’s proposals and will review the outcome of the recently issued consultation when published.

“Whilst this short-term trading performance is disappointing, the Group’s financial position is strong and the Board remains confident in its medium-term prospects, and continues to focus on its sustainable growth strategy of development through targeted acquisitions, growth investment, and business improvement initiatives, supported by a strong balance sheet.”