Cheshire-based NWF Group plc, which delivers fuel, food and agricultural feeds across the UK, said its adjusted profit before tax for the full year is expected to be “significantly ahead of market consensus” amid a rise in demand for fuel due to the conflict in the Middle East.

In in a trading update for the year ending May 31, 2026, NWF said of its fuels business: ” … following a disappointing first half trading performance, demand for heating oil normalised during December 2025 in line with Board expectations, in part due to the arrival of colder weather, leading to a corresponding positive impact on Fuels’ performance.

“Since the start of March 2026, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in the Group experiencing volatile trading conditions in its Fuels’ business, with very significant short-term movements in oil prices and heightened expectations of a supply constrained UK fuel market.

“As a result, performance in the Fuels’ business during the final quarter of the financial year, to date, has been stronger than anticipated.

“Demand levels have remained consistent for commercial customers, whilst domestic demand has reduced in recent weeks.  To date, supply has been stable. The business continues to embed the change to its regional operating model.”

In its outlook, NWF added: “The ongoing situation in the Middle East is leading to uncertainty in respect of the cost of fuel and whether UK fuel supply will become constrained. This is particularly the case for aviation fuel, which in the UK is also the fuel used for heating oil.

“Demand for heating oil is normally low across the summer, but without a resolution in the Middle East and greater visibility over the security of supply into the UK, there could be a further impact on its affordability and availability going into the colder weather months. In the meantime, the price of oil fluctuates considerably in response to the evolution of the situation.

“In light of this backdrop, visibility remains limited heading into the new financial year, and the Board is mindful that the future performance of the Fuels business is difficult to predict. As a consequence, the Board continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide an update to shareholders when the outlook becomes clearer. The Group’s full year results are expected to be released in late July 2026.

“As it announced on 20 March 2026, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has launched a market study into the retail supply of heating oil for domestic use in the UK. As the third largest fuel distributor in the UK, albeit with less than five per cent. market share, the Group has responded to the CMA statement of scope. The CMA is expected to report in June 2026.

“The Board remains confident in the Group’s prospects and continues to focus on NWF’s long term growth strategy of development through targeted acquisitions, growth investment, and business improvement initiatives, supported by our strong balance sheet.”